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Clinical Prediction Models 

Clinical Prediction Models
Chapter:
Clinical Prediction Models
Author(s):

Ji-in Choi, Wesley K. Thompson

and Stewart Anderson

DOI:
10.1093/med/9780199796816.003.0041
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date: 24 November 2020

Clinical trials of mood disorders in late-life frequently use time to the occurrence of an event as the primary study outcome. In recent years it has become common to collect additional variables repeatedly over multiple time points, augmenting the primary time-to-event outcome, including variables related to physical health and functioning, biological correlates of illness, contextual variables such as negative life events, and cognitive impairments. In this chapter we describe “joint models,” which incorporate these longitudinal data to predict future time-to-event outcomes. These predictive models can be useful in a clinical setting where interest centers on using a set of patient characteristics, obtained over multiple time points, to obtain a prognosis regarding onset of mental illness. Joint models also allow for updatable individualized prediction of clinical outcomes as more data become available on a given patient over time.

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