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Risk prediction and outcome 

Risk prediction and outcome
Risk prediction and outcome

Stephen Webb

and Jason Shahin

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date: 18 October 2019

Prognostic models allow the prediction of patient outcomes in ICU based on multiple risk factors. Often referred to as either prognostic models, risk prediction models, or severity of illness score. Unlike prognostic models, organ failure models assess the degree of organ dysfunction in major organ systems (cardiovascular, respiratory, renal, hepatic, haematological, neurological). Death after cardiac surgery is related to the patient's preoperative risk profile. Hospital mortality is used as a marker of quality of care after cardiac surgery. In order to compare hospital mortality rates for different hospitals and different surgeons, patients’ preoperative risk profiles must be adjusted using the patient preoperative risk profile. Commonly used preoperative cardiac surgery prognostic models include EuroSCORE and Parsonnet score

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