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Mark Elwood

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date: 17 May 2021

This chapter gives the definition of confounding, a central issue in epidemiology and its dependence on two associations, with exposure and with outcome. It explains confounding in trials, cohort and case-control studies, and Simpson’s paradox. It explains the five methods of controlling confounding: restriction, randomisation, stratification, matching and multivariate methods. For randomised trials, the limits of randomisation, residual confounding, pre-stratification, intention-to-treat, management and explanatory trials, pragmatic trials are explained. It shows the Mantel–Haenszel risk ratio or odds ratio, direct and indirect standardisation, and effect modification. Frequency and individual matching, their value and limitations, over matching, confounding by indication, and calculation of matched odds ratio are shown. It explains multivariate methods, including linear, logistic, Poisson, and Cox’s proportionate hazards models, including the relationship between coefficients and odds ratios, dummy variables, conditional methods, and propensity scores.

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